(1) In
decision theory and in statistics, risk means
uncertainty for which the probability distribution is known. Accordingly, RISK
analysis ] means a study to determine the outcomes of decisions along with their probabilities -- for example, answering the question: "What is the likelihood of achieving a l,000,000 schilling profit in this
alternative ?" In
systems analysis, a
decision maker is often concerned with the probability that a project (the chosen alternative) cannot be carried out with the time and money available. This risk of failure may differ from alternative to alternative and should be estimated as part of the analysis. (2) In another usage, risk means an uncertain and strongly adverse
impact, as in "the risks of nuclear power plants to the population are..." In that case, risk analysis or RISK assessment] is a study composed of two parts, the first dealing with the identification of the strongly adverse impacts, and the second with determination of their respective probabilities. (IIASA)
The
probability of failure. In
decision making under
uncertainty , risk analysis aims at minimising the failure to achieve a desired result, particularly when that result is influenced by factors not entirely under the decision maker's
control (
see game theory ). (
Krippendorff )
