A consequence is a result of a
course of action (or of a decision) taken by the
decision maker (Synonym: outcome; see
impact ). In analysis, the consequences of a course of action are determined (predicted) by the use of
models. The consequences that one would like to have, particularly those that contribute positively to the attainment of
objectives, are referred to as [benefits;] the consequences that one would like to avoid or minimize are costs. The consequences that do not bear very much on the main objectives and are not evaluated in the analysis but that may affect the objectives of other groups of people are referred to as SPILLOVERS or
externalities. A consequence tree is a graph showing what further consequences will be caused by some direct consequence of a course of action. For example, one alternative to stimulate the economy may be to lower taxes. This will result in an increase of average family income, which will in time influence the number of cars, which will have an impact on traffic conditions, on environmental pollution, and so on. In the literature on
decision theory it is customary to speak about one [multiattribute consequence] of a course of action instead of saying "the action has several consequences." Accordingly, the term [single-attribute consequence] is used when the course of action has only one consequence that is being considered (e.g., monetary profit). Within the context of decision theory, attributes are those features of a consequence that are taken into account in the evaluation of this consequence by the decision maker. One speaks, more precisely, about [value-relevant attributes.] In mathematical formulations one speaks about a mapping from the space of courses of action (action space) into the space of consequences (consequence space.) In a deterministic case the mapping from action space to consequence space is a point-to-point mapping. This means that a given course of action has a given and certain consequence. In a case of
risk or
uncertainty the mapping from action space to consequence space is a point-to-set mapping; that is, a given course of action may have any one of the consequences contained in a given set. In analysis, the mapping from action space to consequence space is described by a
model. (IIASA)
